Betting Probability Formula:
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The betting probability represents the implied probability of an outcome based on the risk/reward ratio of a bet. It helps bettors assess whether a wager offers value compared to their own probability assessment.
The calculator uses the probability formula:
Where:
Explanation: The formula calculates the break-even probability needed for a bet to be profitable in the long run.
Details: Calculating implied probability helps bettors compare against their own probability estimates to identify value bets with positive expected value.
Tips: Enter the amount you're risking and the potential reward. Both values must be positive numbers.
Q1: What's a good probability value?
A: A bet is considered good value when your estimated probability is higher than the implied probability calculated here.
Q2: How is this different from odds?
A: Probability is the conversion of odds into a percentage chance of winning.
Q3: Should I always bet when probability is low?
A: No, low probability doesn't necessarily mean good value - it must be compared against your own assessment.
Q4: What if the reward is zero?
A: The calculator requires both risk and reward to be positive numbers.
Q5: How accurate is this calculation?
A: The calculation is mathematically precise for the given inputs, but doesn't account for bookmaker margins.